The Risk Report
Volume 1 Number 3 (April 1995) Page 4
Later this year, Brazil will try to join the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), an agreement to restrict the spread of long-range missiles. Brazil hopes this step will allow it to import the high technology it needs to develop better space rockets.
For Brazil to join the MTCR, members such as the United States, France, England and Germany must decide whether they can trust Brazil with sensitive technology. A vote on Brazil's membership could come in October.
"Our biggest concern is Brazil's export law," a senior U.S. official recently told the Risk Report. He fears that if the United States starts sending Brazil sensitive exports, U.S. technology could wind up in countries like Iraq or Iran. "In the past, there has been a clear pattern of transfer of rocket technology to the Air Force, then to private companies, and then out of the country through exports. There isn't any technology for the space program that wasn't transferred into the missile program."
He had in mind companies like Avibras. Since the 1960s, it has converted Brazil's Sonda space rockets into artillery rockets for export. One of the best customers was Iraq. Other Brazilian companies sold uranium that wound up in Saddam Hussein's secret A-bomb program, helped Iraq prospect for uranium, and designed an Iraqi underground uranium processing plant. In 1990, Brazilian president Fernando Collor de Mello apologized for the technology transfers, which he called "potentially significant."
Brazil is trying to overcome this record by changing its laws. But according to the U.S. official, some MTCR members fear that bills now pending "do not have strong enough penalties and may not be broad enough in scope." The U.S. official is especially worried about individuals. "We are concerned that individuals are exporting missile tech. Brazil is still trying to figure out what to do about them."
The best known is Hugo de Oliveira Piva, who has been called "Brazil's Dr. von Braun." A former head of CTA (Centro Tecnico Aeroespacial) (Aerospace Technical Center), Brazil's premier missile lab, he was caught in Iraq with a team of Brazilian missile experts when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait. Piva then humiliated his government by taking as long as he could to come home. "Piva's name comes up a lot," the U.S. official says. In a recent interview with the Brazilian newspaper Istoe, Piva said he would view the resumption of Brazilian missile projects with satisfaction. "I regard these projects as my children whom I used to hold on my lap."
Piva's "children" may be the MB/EE and SS-series missiles Brazil was working on during the 1980s. A consortium of Brazilian firms known as Orbita was trying to develop a medium-range missile based on the Sonda-IV space rocket with foreign financing. As a missile, the rocket could carry a 500 kilogram payload up to 1,800 kilometers, almost as far as the U.S. Pershing II missile. Avibras, Brazil's largest weapon exporter, was also working on a line of surface-to-surface missiles known as the SS-300 and the SS-1000.
The U.S. government has had a wary eye on exports to these efforts since 1992, when the Commerce Department listed missile projects to which U.S. sales would require a license. The list included the Sonda rockets and the VLS (Veiculo Lancador de Satelite). If a U.S. company knows its products will contribute to any of these projects, it needs permission from the government to sell.
But U.S. officials tell the Risk Report that Brazil's missile programs are now shut down, and only the space rockets are still being developed.
Hugo Piva's missile dreams have been rudely interrupted by President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, who has cut off funding for missile development. "We don't think at this time that there is an intention to build a missile program," says a key U.S. official who monitors foreign missile projects. "Right now, we think they are only in the space launch business, and only in that for national prestige." Other U.S. officials concur. "The missile program is in limbo now," says one, "and the CTA is withering away because people are leaving. Cardoso wants to join the MTCR." Orbita, the consortium formed in 1987 to convert the Sonda-IV space rocket into a missile, is defunct and so is Engesa, another firm that geared up its missile business at roughly the same time.
In effect, Brazil has been forced to make a choice. The big space rocket it is developing, the VLS, won't be able to compete with American, Russian, Chinese or European satellite launchers unless it is improved. But it can't be improved without imports. And Brazil can't get the imports without giving up its missile program. "Our policy is not to support space launch systems in countries that are not members of the MTCR," says a U.S. official. So Cardoso's decision to give up Brazil's missiles has been a victory for export control.
If Brazil joins the MTCR, "we would evaluate export applications case-by-case, but there are no promises," says another U.S. official. There is concern that the money-losing VLS may not be free from military domination, and may be only a guise for missile development. Over Congressional opposition, the United States has approved sales to space launch programs in Spain, Australia and Italy, all of which belong to the MTCR.
In the immediate future, high-tech exports to Brazil's rocket makers will depend on its continued commitment not to build nuclear-capable missiles and its ability to control its exports to prevent diversion.
A senior U.S. official says that China has abandoned its plans to help Brazil with rocket propulsion. "The Chinese have improved their behavior on missile exports," he says, "except for Pakistan and Iran, where there is a special relationship." And Russia has put off plans to sell Brazil rocket test equipment and support services. Because of the MTCR, Brazil is now limited to getting help with satellites. Rocketry is excluded.
This development has put the VLS in doubt. Brazil started working on this big rocket before the Missile Technology Control Regime was created, but once the new export controls took hold, the launcher project stalled. It is now "progressing slowly," say U.S. officials, because of a lack of money and "weakness in guidance and control." Several years are expected to pass before an experimental launch. The lesson seems to be that export controls, if applied consistently for a long enough period, can pay off.
(The following text is from a chart which accompanied this article.)
Disappearing Brazilian Missile Projects?
Brazil must promise to abandon these missiles to join the Missile Technology Control Regime.
Missile: MB-350
Range: 350 km, Payload: 500 kg, Maker: Orbita.
Missile: MB-600
Range: 600 km, Payload: 500 kg, Maker: Orbita.
Missile: MB-1000
Range: 1,000 km, Payload: 500 kg, Maker: Orbita.
Missile: SS-300
Range: 300 km, Payload: 1,000 kg, Maker: Avibras.
Missile: SS-1000
Range: 1,000 km, Payload: 1,000 kg, Maker: Avibras.